Well, even though it's supposed to be ninety degrees today, I hereby declare that fall is here. Leaves are already changing, it's foggy in the morning, evenings are cool and dry, day lilies are dying back and the color of the sky is becoming that beautiful cerulean blue that is the ultimate precursor to the gray skies of winter.

However, it's spring in the Upper Valley real estate market. After a lazy summer of sporadic sales, things are cooling off even more now that school has started. There is a load of inventory out there, all at price levels not seen in a lot of years. The feeling that I get is a community of home buyers and home sellers battening down for a long, cold winter. Even though rates are at unprecedented lows (less that 4%), there doesn't seem to be much impetus for actual transactions. There are plenty of lookers, plenty of "low-ball" offers, an increasing amount of foreclosure and short sale activity, not a lot of closings. It reminds me a little of 1974, when the market was in virtual stasis. Of course way back then, rates were 18%, not 4%, but the results are the same. Buyers weren't buying, sellers weren't selling, banks weren't lending and unemployment was 10%. So it looks like hard times are going to be around for a while longer, but all is not lost.

As the new-old normal of housing as shelter, not investment, takes a firmer hold, owners have begun to remodel and renovate their properties, not so they can flip them, but so they can live in them comfortably. My experience is that this activity is the progenitor of a recovery in the market. Since the new home market is virtually non-existent, cost of materials, contractors, and labor for these improvements is lower than in many years and the plumbers will actually show up on the job, sometimes even when they say they will be there. This minor construction activity leads to judicious furniture purchases, appliance refits, energy efficiency and stability in the market place.

Does it spur homes sales in the short term? - No. But, it's like when the snow drops peep forth in the spring: A new beginning.

        

When the real estate market is going through "tough times" or a "downturn", it can strain the resolve of many brokers and practitioners. The reasons are obvious: income levels drop, workload increases, disappointments are more plentiful than rewards, obstacles are more plentiful and more complicated and on and on. A lot of practitioners quit the business. But one of the most important benefits of being in the real estate business, which often goes overlooked when times are "good" and business is booming, is the opportunity to meet people, buyers, sellers, landlords, tenants, or other brokers and actually spend some time with them, have a conversation and understand their needs and motivations.<< MORE >>

This is the first installation of a half year glimpse of residential housing sales for the Hartford, VT region of the Upper Valley. As you can see, the first half numbers are certainly less impressive than in previous years. I will publish the same chart for many of the Upper Valley regions and then summarize what I think it all means and, as always, predictions for the future!! All statistics are from the NNEREN MLS Service.

        

I was reading this morning about another "green" car, this one by former McLaren Racing design engineer, Gordon Murray ( Green City Car ) and something in the text reminded me of a company I worked for over twenty five years ago that manufactured and distributed custom post & beam, super-insulated kit-homes. I built quite a few of these houses over the years I worked there and considering heating oil prices were then at an all time high (I think just over $1.00/gallon, which was pretty big money for 1983), the concept was a really good one, although in some cases, the execution faltered because of the vagaries of the construction process.<< MORE >>

I was pondering the other day about how pervasive and important our perceptions are and what a major role they play in our decision making process. The impetus for my considerations was a "discussion" with my teen-age daughter around some everyday behavioral flaws and how they might be avoided in the future. Soon my wife joined the "discussion" and, as the conversation extended and the temperature rose, it dawned on me that neither my wife or my daughter was going to "see it my way." Was it because they didn't care or thought I was dead wrong, or just wanted to be difficult or argumentative? Although it may have felt that way in the heat of battle, it occurred to me later that they each had a pretty different perspective on the question and pretty different perceptions of each party's interests and goals in the matter. << MORE >>

Since I was sucked in myself just a few months ago and have now, with much difficulty, finally extricated myself from my Facebook account, I feel constrained to offer a few points about Facebook membership and social networking in general, particularly as they pertain (or don't) to the real estate profession. << MORE >>

Well folks, the latest deadline is upon us! As of April 30, 2010, the housing purchase tax credit will be over unless there is some last-ditch Congressional extension, which I do not expect. The housing market has been the recipient of some real benefit over the last nine or so months with the government offering up to 8% of the purchase price of a home as a tax credit and the program has done some real good, especially for first time buyers, who have effectively been shut out of many markets for a number of years. The combination of preternaturally low interest rates, a housing bust producing unheard of low prices and the much touted tax credit brought out many young buyers who had all but given up hope of ever owning a home and their participation boosted the over-all market place for as long as it lasted.

The big question at the end of the month for brokers and sellers particularly is, "Now what?" With no stimulus and unemployment showing no signs of abatement, the real estate market is, I believe, headed for some further hard times. Here in the Upper Valley, there is a little insulation, but foreclosure properties are popping up more regularly now than a year ago and there is a load of inventory out there. I suspect it may turn out to be a little of the old Chinese curse; "May you live in interesting times."

        

It struck me this morning that, even in a world where so many things are in chaos, the economy, Haiti, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, N. Korea, the housing market, the stock market, politics, and on and on, we must still soldier on and do the things that we do.

1. We cannot stop raising our children to be happy, productive citizens of the world even if they disappoint us from time to time.
2. We cannot stop pursuing our livelihoods and professions even if they are in a state of profound change.
3. We cannot stop trying to change things for the better, even if our contribution is small or consists only of a kind word to a stranger.
4. We cannot stop learning and trying to understand our personal place in the world, even when it seems not to matter.
5. We cannot stop seeing the beauty and feeling the rhythm of life even when life seems to treat us unjustly.

And, perhaps most importantly, we cannot live in fear because fear is wasteful and fear is contagious and fear robs us of the will to soldier on and continue the tasks listed above and the hundreds of other necessary tasks that are there to be performed.

        

I have to tell you, faithful readers, I am already tired to death of hearing about Scott Brown and he's not even been seated yet. The apparent lord and savior of the oh so tired Republican Party is the newly anointed knight in shining armor who should be able to fix everything that is wrong with the good ol' USA by applying good conservative philosophy, bringing back traditional values (whatever those are) and a melange of all of the other weary, jingoistic, crapola being screeched by Glenn Beck, Limbaugh and the other fools of talk radio. << MORE >>

t's a new year and we are getting ready to celebrate the "new normal" in real estate, which is something pretty different than the "old normal" from the recent past. It is this concept that guides my 2010 predictions, so get ready!<< MORE >>