Well - it's official. The business leaders of the Upper Valley have declared that the real estate market has "hit bottom" with only minimal damage in terms of sales prices and days on the market. It seems according to one leader that, "We're rolling again!" While I would love to leap onto the band wagon and in fact, I admit that activity has certainly been good given the negative press and the economic bad news on almost every other front; I have to ask for a pause in the euphoria long enough to make a couple of observations. Mine are more of a gut level reaction to the statistics that I have see reported as well as my own personal experience rather than the compilation of current MLS statistics favored by some of the community's business leaders.

1. Despite a load of phone activity and property tours and open houses, the actual closings that I take a look at every day seem pretty puny given the level of activity.

2. The price levels of the actual closed sales are low, mostly in the $200K and under category. It is now the exception rather than the rule to see $500K and up closings.

3. It appears to me that many sellers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for some stability in the market before listing their property for sale and are only now beginning to put homes on the market with a vengeance.

"What does this mean?" you might ask.

1. REALTORS are "doing a lot of business", but not very many transactions are actually closing.
 
2. The market is crowded with first -time buyers who have previously been shut out of the over-heated market. Anxious to get into their first home with a low interest rate and a tax credit to boot, they are out in force. The only problem is there are not very many decent properties in their price range for them to choose from.

3. The slightly rosier statistics that are being reported are being skewed by behavioral factors relative to emotion and state of mind.

Conclusion: We could very easily be in the middle of a "rebound bubble". I actually think the same thing is going on in the stock market. When prices get so low that investors/buyers can't resist, things look better for a while. Unfortunately, as real market conditions come back into play, the activity diminishes again until the next irresistible price point is achieved. I hope I'm wrong.