Barney's Top 5 2010 Real Estate Predictions
Posted by Barney Griggs at 1/11/2010 7:43 AM 
Categories: General
Tags: Upper Valley Dartmouth homes unemployment mortgage New Hampshire real estate land Sales market Vermont
Categories: General
Tags: Upper Valley Dartmouth homes unemployment mortgage New Hampshire real estate land Sales market Vermont
It's a new year and we are getting ready to celebrate the "new normal" in real estate, which is something pretty different than the "old normal" from the recent past. It is this concept that guides my 2010 predictions, so get ready!
1. Housing will become a commodity again rather than an investment. This means that buying and owning a house will be more about having a place to live rather than purchasing a March pork belly contract. This also means that housing prices will stabilize and pick up modest gains in accordance with the condition of the economy at large.
2. Unemployment will continue to be the real estate market's biggest enemy. Until folks get back to work at a livable wage, prices and activity will hover around the "new normal".
3. At the point where buyers realize that there may be no life-changing short-term appreciation in their housing purchase, the rental market will begin to improve as folks reassess the future risks and rewards of home-ownership.
4. At some point the government will institutionalize additional tax credits or other incentives to encourage new construction (probably in building new or refurbishing rental units) finally realizing that housing construction is one of the major keys to the unemployment problem.
5. Banks, mortgage companies, and investment bankers will continue their shenanigans as if there had never been any financial crisis. Now that they know they can gamble on all the long shots without real risk and then use their losses to get government bailouts larded by ever increasing and ever more creative ways to separate consumers from their money, those behaviors will become their "new normal" unless regulators step in, which is unlikely since they have already demonstrated no ability to regulate anything (as in having the foxes guard the hen-house).
Pretty bleak, huh? Not really! Once current conditions have been accepted as normal, buyers and sellers will stop waiting around for the market to "come back" and begin to deal with their situations in the light of reality rather than fantasy. That will be the beginning of the next "new normal".
1. Housing will become a commodity again rather than an investment. This means that buying and owning a house will be more about having a place to live rather than purchasing a March pork belly contract. This also means that housing prices will stabilize and pick up modest gains in accordance with the condition of the economy at large.
2. Unemployment will continue to be the real estate market's biggest enemy. Until folks get back to work at a livable wage, prices and activity will hover around the "new normal".
3. At the point where buyers realize that there may be no life-changing short-term appreciation in their housing purchase, the rental market will begin to improve as folks reassess the future risks and rewards of home-ownership.
4. At some point the government will institutionalize additional tax credits or other incentives to encourage new construction (probably in building new or refurbishing rental units) finally realizing that housing construction is one of the major keys to the unemployment problem.
5. Banks, mortgage companies, and investment bankers will continue their shenanigans as if there had never been any financial crisis. Now that they know they can gamble on all the long shots without real risk and then use their losses to get government bailouts larded by ever increasing and ever more creative ways to separate consumers from their money, those behaviors will become their "new normal" unless regulators step in, which is unlikely since they have already demonstrated no ability to regulate anything (as in having the foxes guard the hen-house).
Pretty bleak, huh? Not really! Once current conditions have been accepted as normal, buyers and sellers will stop waiting around for the market to "come back" and begin to deal with their situations in the light of reality rather than fantasy. That will be the beginning of the next "new normal".
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